Hindsight bias occurs when we look back on past decisions and alter our perceptions of the circumstances and events. We often will say “I knew that was going to happen.” The phrase ‘Hindsight is 20/20′ is the common invocation describing this behavior.

Many people use hindsight bias to help resolve inconsistencies between something occurring today and the decision making process in the past. This quirk of reasoning can lead to a negative feedback loop. You may start out on some goal, run into a snag, and then berate yourself with “I should have seen this coming.” A few snags and then you convince yourself that you won’t be able to be successful at your endeavor.

The thing is – You will never be able to anticipate all things. You can’t predict the future. When you look back on a past activity, you have new perspective and data that you didn’t have earlier in time. So, of course you will have a different opinion on the situation. You have more information.

The best way to handle it? Treat is as a mental sunk costs. Realize that you have more information today, but don’t get hung up on the negatives. Take notes, don’t make the mistake again, and getting moving forward.

If you operate in technology, you’ve heard the term ‘early adopter.’ The term describes a certain type of customer. An early adopter tries new things and quickly appreciates the utility behind new products. You hear the term early adopter in the context of technology adoption and acceptance.

The term is from the book ‘Crossing the Chasm’ by Geoffrey Moore. For the readers in the audience, you’ll remember that the early adopter is actually the 2nd stage of customer in the technology adoption lifecycle.
There is actually a smaller, albeit still important, group called ‘Innovators.’

An Innovator will pursue new technology aggressively. They have a central tendency to admire, appreciate, and try out new inventions, regardless of the current state of development. They are very forgiving about short-comings and realize that new technology has bugs. ( Most people in the Valley would consider themselves early adopters, but in fact they are closer to innovators when you consider the U.S. proper and the world as a whole. )

Companies have a hard time tracking Innovators. Here is one site that is completely dedicated to Innovators: Make Magazine (website, blog ) . If I were a business considering new ideas, I’d keep a running tab on this site. Keeping a tab on Innovators helps a company identify new trends and could even create an opportunity for an early market move. The ideas on the site are unrefined and unpolished – this is a site for Innovators.

However, with a little bit of vision, it will become quickly apparent how to find new product concepts.